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I know you guys are sick of my theories, but here's another one:

WPK and Nessos are never both mafia in this game.

And this isn't even "Nitty wouldn't make both Whites mafia" metagame theory.

He agreed with, I think, Nessos about the black sisters being truly RNG. And now with JW flipping town, I do believe it. Sorry John. Mea culpa.

Having said that, WPK and Nessos are still never both mafia in this game. They can both be town (though unlikely).

My reason is simple. Both WPK and Nessos are intelligent, thoughtful players who use their abilities and information tactfully. On this note, I know more about WPK than Nessos, but I digress. Nessos admitted very early on that he had +1 voting power and expected WPK did as well. He didn't need to say that from town's perspective. He did it to be helpful (or to obfuscate if mafia).

If Nessos is town, he should likely suspect WPK to not be so. (He hasn't gone after WPK to my knowledge) If I were him, and town, I would be ok with everyone knowing my voting power because odds are mafia knows already anyway. And to put the spotlight on WPK.

If, on the other hand, Nessos is mafia, he knows WPK is town. Therefore, he can't mess around with his VP because WPK knows he has it and can put the spotlight on him. It makes perfect sense for Nessos to broadcast that voting power passive regardless of his alignment.

Unless WPK and Nessos are both mafia. In which case they could have come up with any story they wanted and used their VP subtly until they needed to set it up as an ambush or any other strategy later in the game. It wouldn't make sense to be forthcoming and helpful in that scenario.

In conclusion, if Nessos flips mafia, I am ready to treat WPK the same as DDL.

That is all.
 
Tiger said:
Not sure why you still think that's relevant, Nat. The black ajah is a group with cohesive abilities. It's astronomically more likely someone in their group has targeted vote fuckery.
Click to expand...
Yes. You remain being the only person who voted for the wagons opposed to Cypher... Along with Cypher...

...

.

:dank ok I won't mention it anymore, since no one cares about this tinfoil
 
Tiger is 100% scum. Cypher didn't have vote power passive so someone most likely manipulate the vote.

Tiger voted LG, Cypher counter wagon. His votes made the votes toed from 8 to 6 to 8 to 8 leading to rng.

Tiger again voted Cooler, Cypher counter wagon and Cypher had 7 while Cooper had 6 and Cooper got lynched. Tiger most likely has his voting power counted 3. So from 7 vs 6 in Cooler favour led to 7 vs 8 which led to Cooler got lynched.

Cypher might also gambled yesterday by outing Tiger her scum mate. If Cypher got lynched that confirmed Tiger. If tiger got lynched that confirmed Cypher. There 2 gambled like that yesterday.
 
Lord Melkor said:
@Nessos, explain why you defended Cypher so long and could not accept she was scum? I think you are best vote for today.
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I explained my tinfoil theory didn't I?
I thought both D1 trains were trains in Town cause D1 lynch ended in RNG.

-> either Flowers VC lowered by 2, one Vote shifted or LGs VC raised by 2.

We know Cypher didn't have a passive to reducing VC on her. Someone with +2 Vote Power or another 2 with +1 who are Not White Ajah in LG unlikely.
-> Vote was shifted.

-> Either Maerala or someone else shifted the Vote. A small question "Did Cypher push @Maerala during Day2?"


LM you are a quick with voting and you still didn't answer my question, did you?
Nessos said:
You truly believe that End of Day 1 I came in (not even 10 min left) and use my double vote power to bus my scumbuddy?
Click to expand...

@Dragon D. Luffy yes I defended Cypher cause of being obsessed with my tinfoil theory.

Btw @Tiger was visited by @Ishmael and @Hero.
 
Dragon D Xebec said:
Tiger is 100% scum. Cypher didn't have vote power passive so someone most likely manipulate the vote.

Tiger voted LG, Cypher counter wagon. His votes made the votes toed from 8 to 6 to 8 to 8 leading to rng.

Tiger again voted Cooler, Cypher counter wagon and Cypher had 7 while Cooper had 6 and Cooper got lynched. Tiger most likely has his voting power counted 3. So from 7 vs 6 in Cooler favour led to 7 vs 8 which led to Cooler got lynched.

Cypher might also gambled yesterday by outing Tiger her scum mate. If Cypher got lynched that confirmed Tiger. If tiger got lynched that confirmed Cypher. There 2 gambled like that yesterday.
Click to expand...
I could have been Maerala both times too. Thus same question to you

Nessos said:
"Did Cypher push @Maerala during Day2?"
Click to expand...
 
Dragon D Xebec said:
Tiger is 100% scum. Cypher didn't have vote power passive so someone most likely manipulate the vote.

Tiger voted LG, Cypher counter wagon. His votes made the votes toed from 8 to 6 to 8 to 8 leading to rng.

Tiger again voted Cooler, Cypher counter wagon and Cypher had 7 while Cooper had 6 and Cooper got lynched. Tiger most likely has his voting power counted 3. So from 7 vs 6 in Cooler favour led to 7 vs 8 which led to Cooler got lynched.

Cypher might also gambled yesterday by outing Tiger her scum mate. If Cypher got lynched that confirmed Tiger. If tiger got lynched that confirmed Cypher. There 2 gambled like that yesterday.
Click to expand...

Once again, it makes far more sense for mafia to have a vote fuckery ability than for a specific person to have extra voting strength when they aren't white ajah. Who voted where becomes completely irrelevant then.

So... Are you not following along or is this a desperate attempt at shade to save a teammate?
 
Tiger said:
Once again, it makes far more sense for mafia to have a vote fuckery ability than for a specific person to have extra voting strength when they aren't white ajah. Who voted where becomes completely irrelevant then.

So... Are you not following along or is this a desperate attempt at shade to save a teammate?
Click to expand...
I think day one ended in rng so someone reduced one of Cypher voter vote count by two. From 8 vs 6 to 6 to 6

Day 2 ended with cooper lynch even though Cypher had 7 while Cooper had 6 so someone might reduced one of Cypher voter vote power by 2 leading from 7 vs 6 to 5 vs 6 and Cooper got lynched.

No this is no attempt to save Nessos. This is my attempt to catch scum by thunking vote fuckery day one amd day two. That's the only vote fuckery I can think of. You voted Cypher counter wagon both times and both times Cypher was saved.
 
Tiger said:
There are a large list of ways mafia could possibly have to alter the vote by 2 from a distance-- but to you the one that makes most sense is that I would make myself vulnerable by announcing that I had a huge voting power despite not being white ajah?

That's really what you think?
Click to expand...
You questioning Xebecs Logic, but in the other hand you truly believe scum would use Double Vote on scumbuddy to make lynch rng instead of letting it become a clear Town lynch?
 
Nessos said:
You questioning Xebecs Logic, but in the other hand you truly believe scum would use Double Vote on scumbuddy to make lynch rng instead of letting it become a clear Town lynch?
Click to expand...

Obviously the ability is a 2 vote swing. As in, make X vote for Y. Or "add 2 votes to X" straight up.

If the ability was stronger, D1 wouldn't have been RNG obviously. That's a clear one...so why would you bring it up?
 
Tiger said:
Obviously the ability is a 2 vote swing. As in, make X vote for Y. Or "add 2 votes to X" straight up.

If the ability was stronger, D1 wouldn't have been RNG obviously. That's a clear one...so why would you bring it up?
Click to expand...
You are now voting me.
Check back D1 when I voted Cypher, it was Not even 10 mins before Day ended.

Do you really believe I would bist my teammate D1 was a Last Minute Vote?
 
I also think that the mafia believed Cooler had changed his vote, despite Nitty not counting it because it was worded incorrectly.

And if you then voted for Cypher and used an ability to secretly swap your own +1 vote from Cypher to LG, you thought it wouldn't go to RNG, and you'd look good for voting away from the town flip.

But the next day you campaigned really hard not to vote Cypher, and then the next day attempted to lead us into another close wagon.

So yeah, I'm still comfortable with my vote as things stand.
 
Tiger said:
And where did you vote D2?
Click to expand...
I voted for Natalija. In my opinion scum should have been either Maerala or Natalija.

Even so Cypher was almost saved Day 1 for me the Chance that scum hiding in Flower train was higher then Cypher being scum.

On Day 3 I indeed wanted to have 3 trains close to ahow votes get shifted to literay debunk what Xebec is trying to pull now.

Day 4 Cypher Vote result was a way too convinient thus I voted her. You as second in case Cypher is indeed the cop she is saying.
 
Tiger said:
And if you then voted for Cypher and used an ability to secretly swap your own +1 vote from Cypher to LG, you thought it wouldn't go to RNG, and you'd look good for voting away from the town flip.
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You should reconsidere it was the end of Day 1. And votes were close with votes keep switching. Thats being said.

Yeah I hard defended Cypher based on a tinfoil theory. I still think the chance is there Maerala is the one with hopping Vote.
 
Lord Melkor said:
I used the same power to hide Usopp had. It seems a lot of people have same powers in this game.
Click to expand...
So you wanna tell use besides having Ajah Power you have 2 abilities?

The same as Usopp with which you can defend yourself and one with which you can visit others?
Natalija said:
Hmmm I got that LM and you targeted Melodie
Click to expand...
Natalija Had basically the same result as I have the day before.



So far all Towns Flip with having one Ajah Ability and one None Ajah ability.


[Vote lynch Lord Melkor]

@Tiger how do you think about LM?
 
I think it's clear they keep their non-black ajah abilities and simply gain more.

So yeah, I think they have plenty of information streaming through their chat. It sounds like a dream for me, so I'm a little sad I didn't get to be part of it.

I think he always did. And I also think he's mafia.

I think there's a good chance LM is mafia yes. But it's bed time for me and I'm not confident enough in that assertion to switch my vote. Had a long day too.

I will see what others I trust a bit more have to say on the matter and mull it over tomorrow well before votes lock.
 
Ok, I couldn't sleep. I iso'd several people.

@Lord Melkor I think you need to answer Nessos' question. That felt like a slip to me.

Also, what was your buff?

@Dragon D. Luffy if my theories of today are correct, and Green is being ignored because mafia doesn't have a green, and mafia had red, blue, brown, and yellow (mafia has gone after Kvothe, RemChu, and Sigis.) Then Nessos is only mafia if they have 5.

How do you feel about Lord Melkor claiming he has access to Folded Light, but calls it "the ability Usopp had", and also has been seen visiting others when we know he has a brown passive to improve his ability like Sig and Natalija?
 
@Nessos you were right to rate me optimistic. Was lying in bed drifting and then something pinged for me and I couldn't sleep.

Let's revisit your D2 theory for a second.

I no longer believe that mafia have a once per day ability to swap a vote. If they did, there's no reason not to use it on yesterday's lynch JW vs Me. Not because I'm so much more dangerous than JW, but because there's no downside to doing so. They flip a vote and I get lynched. People go "holy crap, JW is mafia!" And vote him today. It at least causes confusion.

So the target has to be mafia.

But there's a second problem. There are no other day abilities, are there?

What if one or more mafia members have a passive that not just nullifies their vote when voting for other mafia, but actually removes a vote from them. A -1 vote, if you will.

Mafia sees Cooler change his vote D1, not knowing it doesn't count. They see you vote Cypher but don't know you have +1 voting power. They think it's even between Cypher and LG, and with the -1 passive it saves Cypher completely. As far as they were concerned it was probably 6-4 in favor of LG. Or if they knew about your +1, 6-5, etc.

All this means, for me, is that Maerala is not in the clear, and that if mafia could flip any vote on any wagon, they would have done so yesterday.

Now it's almost 3am...I blame Nitty for making a good game that makes me permanently wear tinfoil as headgear.
 
@Tiger i am a bit busy in work so won't be terribly active today but i originally had only one active ability -Folded Light which every second night allows me to avoid actions.

Due to my Brown Ajah passive it was updated on night 3 so i can now choose to use it on others acting as jailkeeper.

I also think there are too mamy watchers on town side - Nessos may be mafia's, if not him, perhaps Nat or WPK.
 
Lord Melkor said:
Due to my Brown Ajah passive it was updated on night 3 so i can now choose to use it on others acting as jailkeeper
Click to expand...
Isn't contradicting, because you its Post night 3 and you said tonight you used Usopps ability.

Thus Natalija shouldn't have failed and nevertheless you told us a lie with this
Lord Melkor said:
I used the same power to hide Usopp had. It seems a lot of people have same powers in this game.
Click to expand...
 
Maerala said:
As the sole surviving member of the Red Ajah I reaffirm my affiliation to town. Also Cypher really lied her ass off. She convinced me to rolecrush Tiger but she died before the action went through. So I can probably exonerate Tiger.
Click to expand...
Does seem like a lot of work, and a big risk, if she was just trying to give Tiger towncred with all of that business with the rolecrush. I also doubt Tiger would accept being rolecrushed for town cred, for as much as his influence is his greatest weapon, he loves playing around with abilities.

Tiger said:
My case on you is thin, I'll admit. If I were mafia and you were on my team, I'd kill Kvothe first to take full control of your passive.
Click to expand...
Agreed, though it doesn't seem like Juan has been much on trying to claim cred giving results, nor lie about them to throw town off. Though I don't think he could actually afford to lie, his ability is passive so likely can't be manipulated, thus can't be claimed to be manipulated. Could get one lie off, then he's toast.

Tiger said:
Also, why Sigismund?

@Natalija @Lord Melkor you guys willing to discuss your buffs?

Killing Sig is weird when Melodie and Ish are obviously doctors. Unless both of them are mafia lol
Click to expand...
Watchers are pretty strong, so maybe that's it. It is quite likely there is scum in yellow though, and if there is just one, killing the other could expose them to greater scrutiny.

Tiger said:
They kill Rem, which makes sense- a low profile doc.

Then they switch to Sig, who some were iffy on. 2 yellow ajah still out there, and this is the first brown to die, meaning their buff wasn't public knowledge until now.

Mafia has a brown in it.
Click to expand...
If they killed him because they knew the passive, wouldn't it have made more sense to do it before he got to upgrade his ability and become a greater threat? You and now DDL have been eating RBs, yet no Brown reported being blocked n3 or n4(guess you could call being killed the ultimate RB though with Sigis).

Nessos said:
Sure Go ahead. Do you think Mafia have Watchers and Trackers? Especially after seeing Cypher flip?

Did @Juan always share the results gained by his passive?
Click to expand...
Cypher had the same [Active - Reading Residues] that Cooler had, so I don't doubt they could have tracking/watching abilities that read the same as town versions.

Tiger said:
@Melodie @Ishmael @WolfPrinceKiba

What's your take on Lord Melkor saying he has the defensive active that Usopp had, bringing his abilities to 3?
Click to expand...
If he has three abilities or more, then he's scum. Cypher had four, whereas every townie flipped has had only two, I only have two, and every other claim has been with two abilities.
 
[Vote Lynch Nessos]

Their attachment to Cypher this game despite their mutual dislike raises major red flags, and their push onto Tiger even almost getting him lynched or trying to these last two day phases is a sign of desperation. The vote fuckery that's been happening doesn't have to be Nessos doing it, but it's the most obvious answer, and I'm not going to overlook the obvious answer again like with Cypher.
 
Nessos said:
Isn't contradicting, because you its Post night 3 and you said tonight you used Usopps ability.

Thus Natalija shouldn't have failed and nevertheless you told us a lie with this
Click to expand...

This night i chose to use this ability on myself only.

Due to my Brown update, i have choice between using it on myself or others each night, previously i could only use on myself.
 
I get lynched, because being obercofident with my tinfoil theory.


The ones who should get lynched next is clearly Lord Melkor. In my opinion his "Update" doesn't make much sense.

Usopp ability said:
[Active - Folded Light] - During the night you can hide behind an illusionary wall, causing other players' abilities to fail on you, but also preventing you from using any other active abilities. This ability cannot be used two nights in a row
Click to expand...
Shouldn't an update of this ability be like
"Hiding someone else behind the illusionary wall, making every ability fail on them".
 
Nessos said:
Also if I eng up getting lynched someone should take a closer look at @WolfPrinceKiba he is buying LMs claim a way too fast.
Click to expand...
It's one that makes sense within my views on game balance, and how Nitty has talked to me in the past about how they balance. You're going hard on this slip angle, and haven't even gotten the full picture yet with Melodie's response.

LM is suspicious, but the claim doesn't have much to do with it. They're less suspicious than you though.
 
WolfPrinceKiba said:
LM is suspicious, but the claim doesn't have much to do with it. They're less suspicious than you though
Click to expand...
How do you think about?
Nessos said:
Right now LM tells us he is able to create a "smart"-illusion that is able to differ between good and evil.

But sadly he can "smart"-illusion only on others, on himself he still using the "not so smart"-illusion.

:bloblick
Click to expand...


Don't you also wanna hear an answer for this
Nessos said:
@Lord Melkor how about telling us in which way the ability was updated. What is it doing not in the sense of Game mechanic, but in the sense of the theme.
Click to expand...

Before letting LM go away with His questionable claim?
 
WolfPrinceKiba said:
@Nessos : Where did LM claim a smart illusion that can differ between good and evil???
Click to expand...
His ability is to create an illusionary wall that stops all actions. In which does it make sense that this wall let go through all abilities besides killing attempts, when used in someone else?

You wanna tell me Nitty doesn't care about Game Design? Don't make me laugh.
 
Nessos said:
The update needs to make sense of the Game design and not only in sense of the Game Balance. Don't you agree @WolfPrinceKiba ?
Click to expand...
Do you mean make sense in flavor? I haven't read this series, but the description of how it works is just that they can create a safety box around a person protecting them. I don't see a reason why it wouldn't be possible to put it around another person other than themselves.
 
Nessos said:
His ability is to create an illusionary wall that stops all actions. In which does it make sense that this wall let go through all abilities besides killing attempts, when used in someone else?

You wanna tell me Nitty doesn't care about Game Design? Don't make me laugh.
Click to expand...
Like this may be a language barrier thing, but I have no clue what you're talking about. As for game design...yeah I know a lot about it personally as a longtime host and player, I don't see anything within LM's claim that breaks the game design. It fits rather nicely actually.
 
@WolfPrinceKiba Here once again the ability we are talking about.

Usopps ability said:
[Active - Folded Light] - During the night you can hide behind an illusionary wall, causing other players' abilities to fail on you, but also preventing you from using any other active abilities. This ability cannot be used two nights in a row.
Click to expand...
Read once again, especially this part.
Update shouldn't create the Essence of an ability. Thus If his ability is Upgrades to use it on others it should still be the illusionary wall.
Why should this wall should act different by using it on other players?
 
Nessos said:
@WolfPrinceKiba Here once again the ability we are talking about.


Read once again, especially this part.
Update shouldn't create the Essence of an ability. Thus If his ability is Upgrades to use it on others it should still be the illusionary wall.
Why should this wall should act different by using it on other players?
Click to expand...
I mean I expect the ability is still called fooling light or Not? (this question for @Lord Melkor )

Why should the light stop fooling everyone? (This one for @WolfPrinceKiba )
 
Nessos said:
@Lord Melkor how about telling us in which way the ability was updated. What is it doing not in the sense of Game mechanic, but in the sense of the theme.
Click to expand...

It was updated as follows: Folded light can now be used each night and you can choose to either use it on yourself or to use it on another player but not the same target in two consecutive nights.

So i cannot use it on two different targets the same night. Nothing to do with good or bad.

If you are town, you are tinfoiling again. What do you think of Melodie and Juan coasting the entire game?
 
Shizune

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