Game The Wheel of Time: Trouble in Tar Valon (mafia wins!)

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Cypher said:
DDL, a confirmed Townie, even confirmed what I did and that I wasn't lying after Nitty cleared it up and you guys are ignoring this again.


So either a whole lot of you are scum or you're not even reading.
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You'll have to explain what this means.

@Dragon D. Luffy can you help?

Nessos said:
I can Just repeat myself.

One of Natalija and Maerala have to be scum and the Cypher-Wagon is utter bullshit.
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Saying it again doesn't increase the likelihood that it's true.

You're a dog with a bone, ignoring any possibility you're wrong and ignoring what's happened all day in favor of your specific theory.

Let me ask you again-- do you think both you and WPK are town?

You're acting like it's a done deal that you're right and are shocked at anyone who isn't drinking your kool-aid. That's odd. You're not confirmed, nor is your theory.
 
Once again for those who missed it the first two times:

What Maerala said didn't break the no lying rule, as per Nitty. It was too vague.

But Maerala didn't have time between saying it and back-tracking to ask Nitty if he fucked up, he just panicked and rescinded.

Any explanation after is peanuts compared to the actual energy displayed there. And that energy is not mafia knowing they're allowed to lie.
 
Tiger said:
You'll have to explain what this means.

@Dragon D. Luffy can you help?



Saying it again doesn't increase the likelihood that it's true.

You're a dog with a bone, ignoring any possibility you're wrong and ignoring what's happened all day in favor of your specific theory.

Let me ask you again-- do you think both you and WPK are town?

You're acting like it's a done deal that you're right and are shocked at anyone who isn't drinking your kool-aid. That's odd. You're not confirmed, nor is your theory.
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I investigated Nessos, found he is innocent and DDL initially voted me because he said I didn't use any abilities. Then Nitty cleared this up by telling him that I used no "magical" abilities (Invests are probably not magical in this case).
 
Cypher said:
I investigated Nessos, found he is innocent and DDL initially voted me because he said I didn't use any abilities. Then Nitty cleared this up by telling him that I used no "magical" abilities (Invests are probably not magical in this case).
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No one is voting you for that.

Your cop claim is suspicious all on its own. And whether you were in on it or not, you were saved from lynch by a mysterious power.

Someone in red is obviously mafia and you not checking them out is so fucking weird, Cypher. So fucking weird.
 
Tiger said:
ignoring any possibility
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I don't. Yet you keep spreading These phrases while not being able to tell me a single logical possibility I didn't put into Account.

Tiger said:
Let me ask you again-- do you think both you and WPK are town?
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It is possible both of us are scum. Also both us being scum at once was an Option I added to the possibilities of what happened to yesterdays lynch.



Are you able to point out your thoughts or are you only able to throw around phrases.
 
Nessos said:
I pointed out all possibility and explained why the Option is the only that makes sense.

Now acting like I only assume one possibility is BS at let you really look bad.


Cypher was saved by RNG. The lynch wasn't completly redirected thats somehow what the most player are missing.
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i respect the possibilities, i just don't agree that cypher was really saved by RNG

in fact, it was gna be 7-6 even with ur passive, but nitty didn't count cooler's unvote on cypher, making it 8-6

then someone on LG's wagon, probably had a +2 vote power, making it 8-8

OR like u said, someone on cypher wagon has the power to fake or manipulate votes, but that would mean its a day ability.

BUT the intent was to still make it a 7-8, so LG gets lynched right away. However cooler's unvote didn't count, making it 8-8 and thats what lead to the RNG



Cypher said:
Here now and ffs are you guys rude.

To address some points:

I have no idea how I wasn't lynched, I thought I would and even said so at EoD. And I was not "saved" or whatever, it was RNG.


Whoever votes me now should be looked at after my flip since some are dropping votes without even saying why and yet none of you guys are even paying attention to this.


DDL, a confirmed Townie, even confirmed what I did and that I wasn't lying after Nitty cleared it up and you guys are ignoring this again.


So either a whole lot of you are scum or you're not even reading.
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yea thats sweet and all

but why did u invest nessos? why not me or maerala?
 
Nessos said:
You have forgotten scum can lie.
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It’s kind of what I was saying. Could’ve been worded better but my stance is that..

They really meant what that was and tried to back track without needing to lie and say “oh well I was joking or what I said wasn’t true”

so wouldn’t that solidify the claim? Or make them look better? Scum can lie. If scum they could’ve just lied and kept going to do so.
 
Tiger said:
No one is voting you for that.

Your cop claim is suspicious all on its own. And whether you were in on it or not, you were saved from lynch by a mysterious power.

Someone in red is obviously mafia and you not checking them out is so fucking weird, Cypher. So fucking weird.
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Yes, I'm a weirdo. I don't do stuff just because others tell me to. I use my invest on people I find suspicious and my Red mates just weren't priority for me. I could like...do it N2, but you guys lynch me and don't give me this possibility. Nice going there.
 
Go D. Usopp said:
i respect the possibilities, i just don't agree that cypher was really saved by RNG

in fact, it was gna be 7-6 even with ur passive, but nitty didn't count cooler's unvote on cypher, making it 8-6

then someone on LG's wagon, probably had a +2 vote power, making it 8-8

OR like u said, someone on cypher wagon has the power to fake or manipulate votes, but that would mean its a day ability.

BUT the intent was to still make it a 7-8, so LG gets lynched right away. However cooler's unvote didn't count, making it 8-8 and thats what lead to the RNG





yea thats sweet and all

but why did u invest nessos? why not me or maerala?
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You think I wanna spend a whole day arguing with him by broadcasts when I could just check him?
 
Don’t like that post tiger sent to cypher but I like her response and it’s true.

Yes it gained traction and it’s more obvious than anything now that red has to have at least one scum amongst themselves but it’s not right to make it seem as if that was all throughout the whole game.

Remember that was just a theory as well and could very well still be we don’t know but it’s more than likely truth in scum being there.

If no one else does I’ll admit and say I don’t see anything wrong with what flower did it’s just people caught up with what we know no and getting it confused to what was known then.

It’s her ability.. if she actually has it. The guy she was in the ajah with (LG) even had a post saying how there’s a case none of his fellow ajah are scum.
 
Ok guys @Dragon D. Luffy said he DID NOT obtain any result when trying to track any magical (power) abilities cypher used.

NOW, the cop related ability known so far DID use magic (power) related. Even if you literally just eavesdrop like LG's tracker role.

Lord Genome Sedai, of the Red Ajah
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[Passive - The Red Ajah] - Members of the Red Ajah may discuss the game with each other outside of the thread. Once per game, the Red Ajah may vote among themselves to Still another player, which will permanently destroy that player's abilities.

[Active - Eavesdropping] - During the night you can use the Power to spy on another player, learning who they target.
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IF you use the power to again, LITERALLY just spy and eavesdrop, then an entire cop investigation SHOULD definitely use more than just the power.

BASICALLY: there is NO WAY cypher's cop ability DOES NOT use the power. BUT DDL said she never used any power or magical ability.

RESULT = Cypher is NOT a cop. Stop buying this nonsense ninges.
 
Nessos said:
I don't. Yet you keep spreading These phrases while not being able to tell me a single logical possibility I didn't put into Account.


It is possible both of us are scum. Also both us being scum at once was an Option I added to the possibilities of what happened to yesterdays lynch.



Are you able to point out your thoughts or are you only able to throw around phrases.
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You are ignoring the possibility that Maerala is town and your theory is baseless because you're so dogged about your theory being the only one worth following. You keep posting saying one of Maerala and Natalija must be mafia.

That in itself is ignoring anything but the sound of your own voice.

And wait. You think it's a possibility that both you and WPK are scum? Huh?

I'm not asking you to list all possibilities available, I'm asking you to talk about the likelihood of possibilities from your perspective. Obviously you wouldn't say it's possible you're both scum from your perspective, that's stupid.

It is far more likely that mafia have a vote swap ability than Maerala or Natalija, specifically, are mafia and have a specific ability to save Cypher.

If I only needed one reason, I'd say it's already far more likely because it doesn't require a specific player's voting history to be true.

And EVEN if you're right, and Maerala has an ability to help save her teammate...that means Cypher is his teammate.

So in all scenarios, you should be supporting a Cypher lynch, but you aren't. And that is weird.

Cypher said:
Yes, I'm a weirdo. I don't do stuff just because others tell me to. I use my invest on people I find suspicious and my Red mates just weren't priority for me. I could like...do it N2, but you guys lynch me and don't give me this possibility. Nice going there.
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Usopp tried telling you to scan Maerala or Sigis or Cooler.

I agree that you shouldn't just do what he tells you. So you scan Usopp instead. The fact you didn't should be grounds for a lynch by principle. It's not you "not doing what I'm told", it's just actually dumb. And doesn't fit any logical narrative. What would possess you to not want to clear up the question marks in your own mason chat???

You wouldn't if you already knew they were town.
 
Go D. Usopp said:
i respect the possibilities, i just don't agree that cypher was really saved by RNG

in fact, it was gna be 7-6 even with ur passive, but nitty didn't count cooler's unvote on cypher, making it 8-6

then someone on LG's wagon, probably had a +2 vote power, making it 8-8

OR like u said, someone on cypher wagon has the power to fake or manipulate votes, but that would mean its a day ability.

BUT the intent was to still make it a 7-8, so LG gets lynched right away. However cooler's unvote didn't count, making it 8-8 and thats what lead to the RNG
Click to expand...
In my opinion the lynch scenario was a way to close. Saving Cypher by exactly one while votes changed a lot during the end.

Do you really believe this?


I could understand, if you believe Cypher being scum if the lynch was clearly redirect or the difference in votes we're much higher but that wasn't the case.



Again someone else having +1 or +2 voting Power as passive besides White Ahja would make White Ajah passive pointless. Don't you agree?


Putting these into account Cypher only being scum unser following circumstances
  • Cypher has a passive reducing votes on her by 2
  • Cypher having a passive, when she should get lynched -> rng between her and 2nd in lynch
  • Black Ajahs votes get nullified whe voting for Black Ajahs -> either Cypher and Nessos scum or Cypher, Natalija and Maerala scum

And yeah all these points Looks totally weak and unlikely for me. Thats why I highly doubt Cypher is scum. And believe I am the last protecting Cypher, I am Just doing my homework as Town.



Based on possibilities I explained why someone being able to shift votes is the case with highest chance to be true (and thats by far).
The best explanation why is the reasoning @WolfPrinceKiba mentioned. Black Ajah needs an ability to counter White Ajahs passive and thats what secretly shifting Vote does.

Looking at the Player voting for Cypher can conclude fast the only possibilities for the players who might have shifted their Vote are @Maerala and @Natalija




You can go back and forth. Question every possibility if it makes sense in this Game or not. And then check who could be behind it and why was it done and you will always end in Maerala or Natalija.


But yeah soon @Tiger will Pop Up once again saying "you missed a lot of possibilities" without being able to name a single possibility I didn't take into account.
 
Tiger said:
You are ignoring the possibility that Maerala is town and your theory is baseless because you're so dogged about your theory being the only one worth following. You keep posting saying one of Maerala and Natalija must be mafia.

That in itself is ignoring anything but the sound of your own voice.

And wait. You think it's a possibility that both you and WPK are scum? Huh?

I'm not asking you to list all possibilities available, I'm asking you to talk about the likelihood of possibilities from your perspective. Obviously you wouldn't say it's possible you're both scum from your perspective, that's stupid.

It is far more likely that mafia have a vote swap ability than Maerala or Natalija, specifically, are mafia and have a specific ability to save Cypher.

If I only needed one reason, I'd say it's already far more likely because it doesn't require a specific player's voting history to be true.

And EVEN if you're right, and Maerala has an ability to help save her teammate...that means Cypher is his teammate.

So in all scenarios, you should be supporting a Cypher lynch, but you aren't. And that is weird.



Usopp tried telling you to scan Maerala or Sigis or Cooler.

I agree that you shouldn't just do what he tells you. So you scan Usopp instead. The fact you didn't should be grounds for a lynch by principle. It's not you "not doing what I'm told", it's just actually dumb. And doesn't fit any logical narrative. What would possess you to not want to clear up the question marks in your own mason chat???

You wouldn't if you already knew they were town.
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Ask yourself: Why would I claim I went for Nessos when it would have been more logical for me to check out Reds for some and I would just make myself look suspicious if I went for another player?
 
Nessos said:
In my opinion the lynch scenario was a way to close. Saving Cypher by exactly one while votes changed a lot during the end.

Do you really believe this?


I could understand, if you believe Cypher being scum if the lynch was clearly redirect or the difference in votes we're much higher but that wasn't the case.



Again someone else having +1 or +2 voting Power as passive besides White Ahja would make White Ajah passive pointless. Don't you agree?


Putting these into account Cypher only being scum unser following circumstances
  • Cypher has a passive reducing votes on her by 2
  • Cypher having a passive, when she should get lynched -> rng between her and 2nd in lynch
  • Black Ajahs votes get nullified whe voting for Black Ajahs -> either Cypher and Nessos scum or Cypher, Natalija and Maerala scum

And yeah all these points Looks totally weak and unlikely for me. Thats why I highly doubt Cypher is scum. And believe I am the last protecting Cypher, I am Just doing my homework as Town.



Based on possibilities I explained why someone being able to shift votes is the case with highest chance to be true (and thats by far).
The best explanation why is the reasoning @WolfPrinceKiba mentioned. Black Ajah needs an ability to counter White Ajahs passive and thats what secretly shifting Vote does.

Looking at the Player voting for Cypher can conclude fast the only possibilities for the players who might have shifted their Vote are @Maerala and @Natalija




You can go back and forth. Question every possibility if it makes sense in this Game or not. And then check who could be behind it and why was it done and you will always end in Maerala or Natalija.


But yeah soon @Tiger will Pop Up once again saying "you missed a lot of possibilities" without being able to name a single possibility I didn't take into account.
Click to expand...

Yes because THOSE ARE NOT THE ONLY POSSIBILITIES. You keep saying "these three bullet points are the only possibilities", ignoring what we've been saying for three hours.

Then you get mad when I tell you you're missing them, tell you what they are, and then fucking ignore them again.

The most likely scenario is that the mafia are able to swap a vote from one person to another. That one scenario solves everything like a lost puzzle piece, and you are just ignoring it like it's a tinfoil. It's asinine.

Cypher said:
Ask yourself: Why would I claim I went for Nessos when it would have been more logical for me to check out Reds for some and I would just make myself look suspicious if I went for another player?
Click to expand...

It makes perfect sense if you and Nessos are both mafia, Cypher.

Because I am not sold on you being a cop at all.
 
Tiger said:
I'm not asking you to list all possibilities available, I'm asking you to talk about the likelihood of possibilities from your perspective
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And thats what I did the whole time and you keep ignoring it.


Tiger said:
You keep posting saying one of Maerala and Natalija must be mafia.
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And now you keep acting like I didn't point out in huge wall of text why.


Tiger said:
And EVEN if you're right, and Maerala has an ability to help save her teammate...that means Cypher is his teammate.
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And again you missed the Point Cypher was saved by RNG. You didn't even think about the possibilities that there 2 Town trains with scum hiding in one of them.

But yeah also the possibility you mentioned there was in the huge list of possibility I mentioned and explained why it is flawed. But sou keep in ignoring the Points I emntioned.



Tiger said:
And wait. You think it's a possibility that both you and WPK are scum? Huh?
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Now the nipticking starts. When one list all potential Options then one also have to the options where themselves end up being scum. Even when knowing they can't be right cause they know their alignment is Town.

But to expect a player can understand it who is only able to throw around empty phrase would be too much.
 
Go D. Usopp said:
Ok guys @Dragon D. Luffy said he DID NOT obtain any result when trying to track any magical (power) abilities cypher used.

NOW, the cop related ability known so far DID use magic (power) related. Even if you literally just eavesdrop like LG's tracker role.

​


IF you use the power to again, LITERALLY just spy and eavesdrop, then an entire cop investigation SHOULD definitely use more than just the power.

BASICALLY: there is NO WAY cypher's cop ability DOES NOT use the power. BUT DDL said she never used any power or magical ability.

RESULT = Cypher is NOT a cop. Stop buying this nonsense ninges.
Click to expand...

I don't follow.

How does a tracker ability being magical guarantee the cop ability is too
 
Tiger said:
"these three bullet points are the only possibilities", ignoring what we've been saying for three hours.
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I mentioned at least 10 possibilities how it came to the result of yesterdays lynch.

And explained in detail why I think secretly swapping votes is the most likely explanation.

And now you say again BS like only 3.
Are you really only able to throw around ließ and empty phrases to Back Up your points. Thats super weak.
 
Lord Melkor said:
Why Juan in particular? He did not do anything this game as far as I am aware, which of course does not put him in good light but it seems like you have something in mind?
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Look at Juan's Ajah and only teammate. Think about why Kvothe might have been killed first.

Nessos said:
@Tiger tries so hard to protect @Maerala and @Natalija without saying once why he thinks both of them are Town, truly let me believe one of them has a very important Black Ajah role.
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And this is how I know you aren't actually reading my posts. I went hard after Maerala to start this phase, and at first I liked your theory. But after re-reading, your theory started developing holes and the odds of other possibilities look better.

And I have given a couple reasons for changing my mind about Maerala, and you ignore them, so why bother talking to you? I feel like I'm debating Trump. Just a lot of "I'm not ignoring, you are!"

Dragon D. Luffy said:
Not a huge fan of Cypher lynch. My gut says she's scum. But really I don't see the point in lynching a claimed cop day 2. If she is town we lose a whole lot. If she is scum we can lynch later.

My gut says Maerala is scum too but new player may be clouding my view a little.

Guys, wanna CFD Cooler or John Wayne?
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Would prefer Kue or Melodie.

Natalija said:
You're clearly FORCING a narrative here down our throats, @Nessos.
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Agreed.

Dragon D Xebec said:
@Cypher can you describe your cop ability that allows you to investigate Nessos? If that's not breaking the rule so we know whther Cypher role uses power or not.
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Not a bad idea given the situation. I'd like for Usopp's theories to be looked into instead of Nessos' for a bit.
 
Cypher said:
@Natalija how likely do you think is the possibility of Usopp and Cooler being part of the same scum team? Because last night he apparently wanted to role crush Cooler while now he refuses for some reason after Maerala proposed to do this.
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I don't want to go into the depths of Usopp's mind games, if being scummates with him taught me one thing, it's to not listen :dank

I'm not sure if they'd be a team, but one of them could be scum
 
Cypher said:
Here now and ffs are you guys rude.

To address some points:

I have no idea how I wasn't lynched, I thought I would and even said so at EoD. And I was not "saved" or whatever, it was RNG.


Whoever votes me now should be looked at after my flip since some are dropping votes without even saying why and yet none of you guys are even paying attention to this.


DDL, a confirmed Townie, even confirmed what I did and that I wasn't lying after Nitty cleared it up and you guys are ignoring this again.


So either a whole lot of you are scum or you're not even reading.
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So do you think Mafia manipulated votes between LG and you to frame despite you both being town?
 
Natalija said:
You're clearly FORCING a narrative here down our throats, @Nessos.
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Forcing.

Read these 2 posts
Nessos said:
I am just saying my top suspects based on the result of last DP lynch are Maerala and Natalija.


What do we know.
7 player voted for Cypher
6 player voted for LG

And it ended up with a rng between Cypher and LG.

Thats a fact.


Now we everyone knows that one of the Cypher voters had double voting power(me) and you (@WolfPrinceKiba) should be able to confirm this since you should have the same passive.

Thus we know it was actually
8 votes on Cypher
6 votes on LG

What is possible, but super unlikely
  • Cypher have a passive reducing votes on her by exactly 2
  • Cypher have a passive, when being lynched always RNG between her and 2nd in lead
  • There are multiple player with multiple vote power (making White Ajah trait quite useless)
  • Black Ajah with Vote silence ability Vote silenced me, unlikely cause it had to be me(it had to be cause of my +2 VP)


And the only other idea I can up with was Vote got secretly shifted!
Turning 6vs8 into 7vs7

Thus we get following suspects
  • One of the player in the Cypher train secretly shifted his vote -> one of @Maerala or @Natalija being Black Ajah with that ability
  • @WolfPrinceKiba secretly shifted his vote from @Go D. Usopp to LG (turning it to a 8vs8) (but even if thats the case I would expect scum hiding in Cypher train)
  • A Black Ajah can manipulated someones vote (but thats in my opinion to OP and thus again unlikely

@Tiger and thats what I think about Yesterday lynch after reviewing the result.
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Nessos said:
I agree the possibility of Blacks Vote being nullified in Blacks is possible, but in my opinion super weak cause it can't be effectly used for Vote manipulation.


Also through lying theme of Black Ajah, I think secretly shifting votes fits perfectly.
And as you said Black Ajah needs a Power to cancel out White Ajah passive also Points towards Vote shifting ability.


But even if take the Black Ajah Vote nullfied on Black Ajah as a potential case it Points again towards Natalija and Maerala don't you agree?
Thus we have
  • Option 1: One of the Black Ajahs secretly shifted his vote from Cypher to LG -> one of Maerala or Natalija being that Vote shifter
  • Option 2: WPK is not only double voter, but can also secretly shift his Vote -> makes only sense to hide a Black Ajah in the Cypher wagon -> WPK and at least one of Maerala, Natalija and me being scumbuddies
  • Option 3: Black Ajahs vote nullified when voting for Black Ajah -> Cypher, Maerala and Natalija being scumbuddies or Cypher and Nessos being scumbuddies

Did I miss a reasonable possibility?

And about Option 3, why risking Cypher getting lynched one Black Ajah could habe Just abstained or Vote someone else in Day 1?
For the last question I would like to hear a logical answer from @WolfPrinceKiba and @Tiger since they are the once advertise this option. Giving their best to shift the votes away from Maerala.
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And tell me the flaws of my eloberation. Which possibilities I left out?
 
Cypher said:
It was literally fucking RNG. I was NOT SAVED FFS!!!
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No Cypher. Whether you're mafia or not, you were saved. The votes were 8 to 6 in favor of your lynch

Nessos said:
My, because I think the Cypher lynch is utte BS.


If Cypher would be scum with Vote manipulation it shouldn't have ended with RNG. Thus why I think both Cypher and LG wagon should have been Town Wagons.
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Unless they only had the ability to swap 1 vote making it 7 to 7.

Obviously.
 
Dragon D. Luffy said:
Predicting what happened with actions in a role madness game is a massive crapshoot and over the years as a host I've notice players fail at it almost every time.
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Dragon D. Luffy said:
Another thing I've learned over the years is that you should never count on other players to act rationally.
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Ah "over the years" is tired DDL's new phrase.
Cypher said:
And again, no damn resistance to my lynch at all.
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What are you talking about? There's been a lot of resistance...

Dragon D. Luffy said:
@Tiger why are you being such a jerkass? This is the 2nd or 3rd time you turn an argument about the game into a personal attack on me.

If you have a problem with me outside of the realm of the game please clarify it now. Or cut with this bullshit.
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Because you're being obnoxious.
 
Shizune

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